TIME: Almanac 1995

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<text id=90TT1574> <title> June 18, 1990: The Political Interest </title> <history> TIME--The Weekly Newsmagazine--1990 June 18, 1990 Child Warriors </history> <article> <source>Time Magazine</source> <hdr> NATION, Page 22 THE POLITICAL INTEREST Searching for Cuba Libre </hdr> <body> By Michael Kramer Since the Bay of Pigs, Cuban Americans have dreamed of dancing on Fidel Castro's grave. They believe in their bones that nothing good will come in Cuba while Castro lives. But all that may soon be history. A week before the Bush-Gorbachev summit, a meeting of far greater significance for Latin America took place in Miami. For the first time in public, Soviet diplomats (including Yuri Pavlov, the Kremlin's leading Latinist) met with Cuban-American leaders. "We are accommodating political reality," says a Soviet official. "Bush will remain hostile toward Castro until the Cuban-American community blesses a change." And nothing about Moscow's Cuba policy will change until Washington's does. Castro's disdain for perestroika is well known, but the Soviet subsidy of Cuba continues unabated at between $3 billion and $6 billion annually, depending on who is counting. "We have conservatives too," explains the Kremlin's Deputy Foreign Minister, Viktor Komplektov. "There is so much else to push that it is simply easier to avoid a fight with those who idolize Fidel." With Gorbachev thus constrained, the path to perestroika in Havana runs through Washington. "Talk to the Cubans," Gorbachev has told Bush. "Something can be worked out. Castro can be a good partner, if only you give him the chance." To date, the Administration's response has been consistently negative. "We won't talk to Castro until his behavior changes," Secretary of State James Baker reiterated recently to Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze. "Or until the Cuban Americans say different," says a White House aide, echoing Moscow's appraisal of U.S. politics. "Well," says Jorge Mas, a millionaire Miami businessman who chairs the powerful Cuban American National Foundation, "it may finally be time to say different. With the Soviets recognizing us as key to a resolution before Castro is gone, testing Gorbachev's reasoning may be risk-free." Cuban Americans even more conservative than Mas oppose any conciliatory gesture, but if Mas' view prevails, an early probe could involve TV Marti, the Florida-based television station that began beaming American programming to Cuba last March. Radio Marti, which has penetrated Cuba for more than five years, has given Castro fits. TV Marti is "driving him even crazier," says Pavlov. As the father of both media moves, Mas sees TV Marti as a potential bargaining chip--"like the way the U.S. used the placement of Pershing II missiles in Europe as leverage to force the [intermediate-range nuclear forces] treaty." Would Castro moderate his hard line in exchange for an end to TV Marti, or a relaxation of the U.S. trade embargo of Cuba? "Unless Fidel believes we will actually walk away if he doesn't deal, he won't deal," says a Soviet diplomat. "And he is nowhere close to thinking that." Castro knows that Cuba is for Gorbachev what abortion is for Bush--a touchstone issue for core conservatives. But "responsible people are increasingly upset about subsidizing a man who thumbs his nose at us," says a Soviet official. "If Gorbachev decides to take on the conservatives over Castro, and the Cuban-American community signals Bush that he can turn U.S. policy, then all the elements will be there." In theory, Castro sees himself as the Last Communist. A short time ago, his brother and presumed heir Raul told a Moscow audience that before abandoning Marxism-Leninism, the Castros will see their nation at the bottom of the Atlantic. According to a Gorbachev adviser, no one thought Raul was joking. </body> </article> </text>